Sovereign risk can be seen to be growing increasingly volatile in a global financial system that is subject to a convergence of multi-dimensional stressors from climate change, macro-economic instability, energy transition upheavals and cross-border cyber-threats. Conventional sovereign risk models tend to be siloed, and have outdated real time responsiveness that does not account for the nonlinear interrelations between these changing variables. This article introduces an innovative AI-augmented structure for climate and energy stress testing, macroeconomic forecasting and cybersecurity intelligence in the form of an integrated general framework supporting sovereign risk analysis. At the macro level, the model draws on data sourced from carbon transition risk indices, sovereign debt profiles, GDP growth estimates and geopolitical risk ratings among other things. At the same time, the model includes shocks to the energy market, paths of renewable adoption, and trends in emissions pricing. In the area of cyber intelligence, the architecture is underpinned by federated threat-sharing networks, digital infrastructure vulnerability scores, and telemetry on cyberattacks to capture system-related shocks that can compromise sovereign credit quality. The approached is a combination of a explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) based ensemble method, a temporal graph network based risk measure, and stress scenario generation, that can dynamically update Sovereign risk exposure using real-time updates. By design, Bayesian updating mechanisms maintain probability consistency while counterfactual simulations enable policy makers to explore hypothetical frictions and cascading defaults. The architecture is empirically calibrated against case study evidence from different economies, and subjected to stress-testing from both historical sovereign default and climate-induced economic meltdown. Integrating physical, digital and financial risk portfolios This comprehensive approach strengthens early warning systems, portfolio derisking and resilient fiscal governance in a world at threat in multiple domains of global hazard.
@artical{k12122023ijcatr12121023,
Title = "Architecting AI-Augmented Sovereign Risk Models by Integrating Climate-Energy Stressors, Macroeconomic Indicators, and Cross-Border Cybersecurity Intelligence Frameworks ",
Journal ="International Journal of Computer Applications Technology and Research (IJCATR)",
Volume = "12",
Issue ="12",
Pages ="234 - 251",
Year = "2023",
Authors ="Kabirat Olamide Mayegun"}